The city of Chicago's Community Development Commission is set to advance a tax-increment financing district surrounding the proposed Lincoln Yards development.

Recently, one of our Facebook followers responded to my article on the origin of Lincoln Yards and the associated tax-increment financing (TIF) district, writing:

"What is missing from publicly disclosed documents are estimates for the amount tax revenue that this project can be expected to generate over the 23-year (more if it's extended) life of the TIF . . . How much in property taxes beyond the estimated $800M for proposed infrastructure improvements that would go into a discretionary (slush) fund under the control of the mayor?"

Chicago Dept. of Planning & Development estimates,
totaling $700M, of infrastructure spending in the
Cortland/Chicago River TIF district.
Source: city of Chicago's 11/14/18 public meeting.

The one thing—and the only thing—we know about the estimated tax revenue from publicly disclosed documents is the amount: $800 million. This figure comes from a FAQ sheet distributed by the Chicago Dept. of Planning and Development at its Nov. 14, 2018 public meeting on the Cortland/Chicago River TIF district.

I think the writer's larger implication is correct: The city has not provided any material to show on what it based that estimate.

Presumably, planning department analysts looked at the potential 23-year life of the proposed TIF district and did the following.

1. Estimate the number, size, density, and uses of all the buildings that might get built.
2. Assign an equalized assessed value (EAV) of all the properties identified in #1, for each year of the TIF district's life. Sum them over all the years.
3. Identify the EAV of all the properties present at the TIF district's inception. Multiply that by the number of years of the TIF district's life.
4. To get the total tax increment accumulated by the district, subtract #3 from #4 and multiply by the tax rate.

Sterling Bay's 11/29/18 update of the proposed Lincoln
Yards building layout. Source: Sterling Bay.

The city hasn't disclosed any of that. Planning department officials did, however, show how they'd spend up to $700 million of the estimated total TIF take (see "Key Public Infrastructure Needs" above).

Some clues about the calculations will likely appear in the TIF district's redevelopment agreement—a document that planning officials said at the Nov. 14 meeting they'd release "in three weeks." That would've been December 5, but the document's still not available on the city's Web site.

Another wrinkle: The Lincoln Yards development will comprise an estimated two-fifths of the TIF district. The developer of Lincoln Yards, Sterling Bay, has not made publicly available a detailed list of the projected number, size, density, and uses of all the buildings in Lincoln Yards. Though an enterprising researcher could extrapolate some (or much) of it from the aerial renderings that Sterling Bay's presented at a Nov. 29 public meeting, no one has tried . . . yet.

Complete audio recordings of the Lincoln Yards public meeting held on Thursday, Nov. 19, 2018, at 1001 N. Crosby St., Chicago.

The proposed Lincoln Yards development and the Cortland/Chicago River TIF district have a past rooted in the city's Amazon bid, and a future linked to a mayor's departure.

The city of Chicago has proposed the Cortland/Chicago River tax-increment financing district, which will encircle all of the planned Lincoln Yards development along the Chicago River's North Branch.

An analysis from the TIF Illumination Project found that the city of Chicago has about $1.44 billion held in accounts associated with the city's 145 tax-increment financing districts.

Interview with the Chicago Reader's Ben Joravsky on the huge sum stockpiled in Chicago's tax-increment financing accounts during 2017, and more.

In an interview by Ben Joravsky with Dave Glowacz on WCPT-AM's Ben Joravsky Show, Ben and Dave discuss a Logan Square TIF subsidy, the arguments for term limits, and more.

In an interview by Ben Joravsky with Dave "Mr Bike" Glowacz on WCPT-AM's Ben Joravsky Show, Dave and Ben discuss Mayor Emanuel's plan for an O'Hare express "cocktail train," winter cycling tips, and more.

This first-in-a-series audiobook features years of in-depth discussions by Chicago Reader columnist Ben Joravsky and journalist Dave Glowacz about tax-increment financing.

A new transit taxing district surrounding the Red Line on the North Side could generate at least $5 billion in revenue—far more than the city had previously claimed.

The original version of our Nov. 17, 2016 interview with Ben Joravsky, "Trump and transit: Rahm railroads Red Line appeal," contained an error.

Reporter Dave Glowacz said that the city's consultant estimated that the Red Purple Modernization Phase 1 TIF district will generate $17.6 billion in tax-increment revenue. That was incorrect.

The consultant's report says that the district will create a total increase in properties' equalized assessed valuation (EAV) of about $17.6 billion over 35 years.

To calculate the amount of tax revenue associated with the total EAV, multiply by the county's current tax rate, .0687 (6.876 percent), by the EAV in each year of the district's 35 years.

That yields a very rough estimate, as the county's tax rate changes year to year.

We've corrected the audio tracks for the interview.

Interview with the Chicago Reader's Ben Joravsky on the Emanuel administration's scramble, after the presumed election of Donald Trump as president, to secure federal funding and TIF designation for Red Line reconstruction.

Interview with the Chicago Reader's Ben Joravsky on the stalled Cardenas-Garza ordinance that deals with the city's tax-increment financing surplus, and more.

Interview with the Chicago Reader's Ben Joravsky on why the Fleet Dept.'s South Side move works better for taxpayers than the McCormick Marriott deal, and more.

The Lathrop Homes redevelopment brackets a purported mayoral slush fund, an alderman's bold claim that he'd reform it, and little-known uses of your property-tax dollars.

Interview with the Chicago Reader's Ben Joravsky on why the Loop's perimeter basks in development, and more.

The city's Community Development Commission unanimously approved tax-increment financing for the redevelopment of the Lathrop Homes public housing complex.

A surprise meeting of a joint review board approved a tax-increment financing district for the redevelopment of Lathrop Homes.

First Ward Alderman Joe Moreno has announced an unprecedented limitation on a tax-increment financing district connected to the redevelopment of Lathrop Homes.